Maximin
Pick the strategy whose worst possible outcome for you is the best of all the worst cases, which fixes the payoff you can guarantee yourself whatever anyone else does.
Often misread asUsing it as a general prescription, so the guaranteed floor gets treated as the right choice even in games where the other side is not out to get you.
How to see it
The number you can guarantee yourself
Forget what the other side is trying to achieve and ask only this: for each of my options, what is the worst that could happen? Then take whichever option has the least bad worst case. The payoff you get that way is a floor you can guarantee no matter what anybody else does.
The checkIt is the right answer against genuine hostility or total ignorance. In a mixed motive game it usually throws away a great deal in exchange for a guarantee you did not need.
Try itTake any two by two game. Find your maximin action, then find your best response to what the other player is actually likely to do. Where they differ, say out loud why you would ever choose the first.
Know these first
Leads on to
Easily confused with
Sources
- von Neumann, J. & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Princeton UP.
- Luce, R. D. & Raiffa, H. (1957). Wiley. Covers duels and timing games.